IN FOCUS
By Avishka Ashok

The US needs to review its policy on Taiwan: Review of a Foreign Affairs analysis

On 13 December, the Foreign Affairs published an essay titled “The Growing Danger of U.S. Ambiguity on Taiwan,” authored by Richard Haass and David Sacks. The essay looks at the growing uncertainty surrounding the US and its support for Taiwan. The opinion piece perceives the US policy towards Taiwan to be ambiguous and urges the administration to move towards strategic clarity, given the circumstantial changes in the international order.

Basic premise
The essay explains that China may feel more confident in aggressively reunifying Taiwan with the mainland following its belief that the US is in its collapse. The US, on its part, has portrayed a confusing stance on its strategy towards Taiwan. The Biden administration sent delegations of the US congressmen to Taiwan, twice in November, but its economic spending and global political standing have failed to show its seriousness in protecting Taiwan from any aggression in the coming years.
 
Five major arguments:
First, the US policy towards Taiwan has remained ambiguous for decades.
The US adopted the policy of strategic ambiguity given its dilemma of cooperating with the Chinese economy while also keeping its promise of defending Taiwan against China’s imperialist ambitions of reunifying the island with the mainland. The US objective in the region, although extremely contradictory, has sustained itself in the last two decades. However, the possibility of achieving similar results in the future is unlikely, given China’s continuous economic and military growth in the region and internationally.  
 
The essay claims that the White House has a tendency to backtrack President Biden’s promises when he pledges his support to fight Chinese aggression in the Taiwan strait. Biden, however, has also taken up steps to reassure US support for Taiwan by inviting the Taiwanese Representative to the US for his inauguration for the first time in four decades and retaining former President Trump’s policy of allowing the establishment of contacts between the two countries.

Second, the US needs strategic clarity to prevent China from forcefully taking over Taiwan.
The authors believe that the US must adopt a policy of strategic clarity to reduce the chances of a full-blown war with China. The US must assert the possibility of a violent and powerful reaction in the eventuality of China’s forceful takeover of Taiwan.
 
Third, the needs to transition from Strategic Ambiguity to Strategic Clarity
The current US policy has been passed down through numerous administrations as they prioritized US national security and interests. However, the US reputation in the international system is no longer as it used to be. The lack of action by the US during the Crimean invasion of 2014 and during the Chinese aggression in Hong Kong in 2019 and its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has led to multiple doubts regarding how solid and trustable the support of the US really is. A shift in policy towards strategic clarity would restore the trust in the US and its support towards Taiwan. Haass and Sacks also referred to World War I and the Korean War to demonstrate that misunderstandings and lack of clarity often lead to war intense situations. Hence, they advocated against the US policy of Strategic Ambiguity and pushed further for clarity on the US policy on Taiwan.
 
Fourth, a bold policy from the US will impact the domestic desire for independence
A stagnant policy may harm the US interests instead of protecting them. The US will find itself in a predicament as a bolder policy in support of Taiwan could encourage the independence movements which may, in turn, antagonize the Chinese against the US. Even though only six percent of the Taiwanese people actually wish to change their status of nationhood immediately, a change in US policy could dynamically alter this ratio.
 
Fifth, US ambiguity has urged other countries to take up audacious measures
The actions of the US play an important role in transforming the international narratives on issues. The allies of the US are likely to react in support of the US foreign policy in almost all instances. In pursuit of encouraging a bold and firm policy by the US, Japan reassured its support in protecting the peace in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan’s territorial integrity in the circumstance of war. Australia also firmly affirmed its support to the US and to Taiwan in case of Chinese interference. The US must reassure its allies and portray its reliability, especially after what happened in Afghanistan.
 
Three major recommendations: Military presence, get ready for a war, and strengthen Taiwan’s defence
First, the US must strengthen its presence in Taiwan
Haass and Sacks advise the US to move the military assets from other regions to the Indo-Pacific. The shift of resources will have its own consequences as the US cannot leave its guard in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe. However, it is essential for the US to increase its spending and invest in Guam and Japan. Along with strategic clarity, the US must strengthen its economic and political investments in Taiwan to showcase a serious and committed partnership with Taiwan. The US may also need to push more capital in its military spending to expound its presence in the region and to deter China from taking action unilaterally.
 
Second, the US must prepare in advance for the eventuality of war and also reveal the consequences to China
The US must specify its counter actions in a scenario where Taiwan is attacked. It must also apprise China of the repercussions to the Chinese economy and political stability within the country in case of a war. The US must gather its allies and formulate a plan to impose sanctions that will effectively deter China from using force in the Taiwan Strait. The US must also design a framework to help countries that would be blacklisted by China for acting against it.
 
Third, the US must strengthen Taiwan’s primary defenses
The US may rest easy if Taiwan was capable of putting up a strong defence against China. The US and its allies must work towards creating resilience in Taiwan by offering assistance with election security, cybersecurity, economic diversification and military independence. The allies could also encourage Taiwan’s internal investments in missile capabilities, drones, sea mines and a stronger naval defence system.
 
References:
Richard Haass and David Sacks, “The Growing Danger of U.S. Ambiguity on Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, 13 December 2021

IN BRIEF
By Keerthana Nambiar and Dincy Adlakha

INTERNAL
China close to overhauling protections for women’s rights
On 2 January, The New York Times reported that China will soon overhaul its law on women’s rights. The move was announced in official reports on social media. China has not changed the law governing women’s rights in decades. However, through these proposed revisions  China will bring changes into the current Women’s Rights and Interests Protection Law which was last amended in 2005. The changes are said to refine the definitions of sexual harassment, ban forms of emoptional abuse and prohibit workplace discrimination. The article stated that Chinese women doubt any real change to be implemented in society. (Vivian Wang, “China Moves to Overhaul Protections for Women’s Rights, Sort Of,” The New York Times, 2 January 2021)

Independent news portal from Hong Kong to cease operations 
On 2 January, Citizen News, an independent online news portal in Hong Kong announced that it will shut operations amid a “deteriorating media environment” and “ensure safety of staff.” The portal was established in 2017 and does not have an affiliation with any party. It aimed to promote the core values of Hong Kong including freedom, openness, diversity and inclusion. However, it has also joined the list of media outlets that have closed operations after the implementation of the National Security Law. (“Hong Kong independent portal Citizen News says to shut,” Reuters, 3 January 2021)

Authorities declare 2021 as China’s hottest year with more extreme weather conditions
On 2 January, the China Meteorological Administration announced that last year was the most severe year for China in terms of weather conditions. It was the hottest year as the nationwide average temperature was 10.7 degree celsius which is one degree higher than normal. The year also saw frequent climate disasters like devastating floods in Henan and droughts in other places. The rainfall was also higher than normal in the past year. (Guo Rui, “China saw record high temperatures and more extreme weather events last year,” South China Morning Post, 2 January 2021)

REGIONAL
HKSAR held the swearing ceremony of 90 new lawmakers under the Chinese Flag
On 3 January, Global Times updated on the swearing ceremony of Hong Kong’s 90 new lawmakers in the seventh-term Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). For the first time, the ceremony commenced with China’s national anthem with the Chinese flag and Chinese national emblem. The Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council congratulated the new lawmakers and said that these lawmakers would accurately implement the principle of ‘one country, two systems and safeguard the Constitution and the Basic Law. (“Update: 90 lawmakers sworn into office, unveiling new chapter for HK governance,” Global Times, 3 January 2022)

China’s closed borders troubles Vietnam’s trade industry
On 2 January, the Vietnamese Trade Ministry asked China’s Guangxi authorities to ease the restrictions at the border crossings which tightened amid fear of COVID-19 spillover. China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner. The state-run Vietnamese News agency reported citing the statement from the trade ministry: “Anti-virus prevention measures that Guangxi is applying under the 'zero COVID' policies, including closing border gates or stopping fruit imports, are over necessary…This disruption has caused negative impact on bilateral trade and great losses to businesses and people on both sides.” (“Vietnam urges China to urgently reopen border gates as trade stalls,” Reuters, 2 January 2022)

President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory remarks with the Kazakh leaders
On 3 January, Xinhua reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with the First President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In President Xi’s message, he congratulated on the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Kazakhstan. According to Xinhua, Xi said: “ he highly appreciates the fact that Nazarbayev has firmly followed a friendly policy towards China, and made outstanding contributions to advancing bilateral ties and deepening Belt and Road cooperation.” (“Xi exchanges congratulations with Kazakh leaders on 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties,” Xinhua Net, 3 January 2022)

President Xi sent congratulatory remarks to Uzbekistan President on 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations
On 2 January, Global Times reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulations with Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to mark the 30th anniversary of the bilateral relations between China and Uzbekistan. President Xi announced that the China-Uzbek relations set a fine example of international relations. According to Global Times, Xi said: “In particular, the two sides have learned from each other in the course of reform, opening-up, development and revitalization, and have worked together and assisted each other in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, making them genuine comprehensive strategic partners.” (“Chinese, Uzbek presidents exchange congratulations on 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties,” Global Times, 2 January 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Chinese foreign minister to visit Eritrea, Kenya, Comoros to deepen ties
On 2 January, South China Morning Post reported that Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to visit Eritrea, Kenya and the Comoros as part of a 3-nation tour from 4 to 7 January. This will be the minister’s second visit to Africa within a month as China tries to deepen its ties with East Africa. Experts analyze that the visits are a strategic and economic beneficiary action that will drive deeper cooperation. (Jevans Nyabiage, “Chinese foreign minister set for 3-nation tour of East Africa as Beijing seeks to deepen ties,” South China Morning Post, 2 January 2021)